LAS VEGAS - The New York Mets are about to complete a deal for record-setting closer Francisco Rodriguez. The Mets could spend up to $51 million on him and not have the best closer in the National League East.
That distinction still belongs to Philadelphia's Brad Lidge, whose perfect season for the World Series champions has not received its proper due. Lidge made the difference in the East this season and was more dominant than Rodriguez.
With Lidge converting all 41 save chances in the regular season, the Phillies went 79-0 when leading after eight innings. The Mets, unsettled at closer all season, went 78-7 when leading after eight innings.
The Phillies won the division by three games over the Mets. Four Lidge hiccups, and Philadelphia misses the playoffs.
Here's why adding Rodriguez does not mean the Mets have closed the narrow gap with the Phillies:
Margin of error: For Rodriguez to be successful, the Mets will have to tack on runs to their leads. Rodriguez had a record 62 saves with the Los Angeles Angels this season. That included 38 saves in 40 chances when given a lead of two or more runs.
Rodriguez was less successful on the tougher save chances. He went 24-of-29 when asked to protect a one-run lead.
Lidge converted 20 save chances when working with a one-run lead.
Level of competition: The Angels' early exit in the playoffs suggested the 100-win regular season was tainted by playing in the West. The Angels went 36-21 against Oakland, Seattle and Texas.
Rodriguez had his way in intra-division games. He was 29-of-31 in save chances against the West and 33-of-38 against all other teams.
The East will present more of an offensive challenge to Rodriguez, with Philadelphia alone a greater test than anything in the AL West. The Mets' bullpen went 3-6 with only six saves in 11 chances against the Phillies this season.
Lidge did benefit from not having to face a Phillies lineup loaded with left-handed hitters. He had 21 saves within the division this season.
Stuff: Lidge buries hitters with a fastball-slider combination. He had 92 strikeouts in 69 1/3 innings this season.
Rodriguez is undergoing a transition. He can no longer pump a steady stream of fastballs past hitters. In the view of two major-league scouts attending the major-league meetings, Rodriguez has become more of a breaking-ball pitcher whose stuff and command can go haywire.
"I know he got the record, but he's not as good for me as a lot of other guys in that role," said one of the scouts, with an AL West club.
The problem is Rodriguez does not always throw strikes. Sometimes, he cannot command the breaking pitch. Sometimes, the delivery comes apart. He allowed 4.48 walks per nine innings this season.
All of that figured in the Angels' decision not to make keeping Rodriguez a priority even after a 62-save season. The Angels are content, for the moment, with giving ninth-inning leads to righthanders Scot Shields and Jose Arredondo.
Rodriguez also failed to cause a commotion on a free-agent market flooded with closers. Several clubs that need a closer were apprehensive about Rodriguez.
He settled for less than his reported expectations of a five-year deal worth $51 million. Rodriguez is guaranteed $37 million over three seasons, with a fourth year at $14 million kicking in if he meets appearance thresholds.
Francisco Rodriguez has the single-season saves record but still must prove that he can do it in the NL East. Until further notice, Brad Lidge is the best of that division's closers.
Rodriguez can get strikeouts. He averaged 10.14 strikeouts per nine innings, a high rate but also the lowest of his career.
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